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Saturday, 12 March 2011

3/12 SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page

     
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Higher Profits Filtering to Pall Corp.
March 11, 2011 at 3:34 PM
 
Mike Maher submits:&
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Getting Levered to the Niobrara: Which Stocks to Buy
March 11, 2011 at 3:29 PM
 
Michael Filloon submits:

The Niobrara shale has been the topic of much interest recently. Some of the biggest names in oil and gas, created a stir based on what an acre of land was worth here. Samson Oil and Gas (SSN) sold a significant portion to Chesapeake (CHK) which then turned around and made a deal with CNOOC (CEO), which I cover in more depth here. Not only did Samson sell the land but in return also will receive a royalty payment. Since then we are seeing Samson's stock go through the roof, and I have a feeling this is just the beginning. This is why Terry Barr President of Samson has been forthright about how well Samson with do this year. These optimistic statements are backed by seismic of the area, that we are sitting on the edge of our seats to hear. The farm in of Halliburton (HAL) also backs this


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MagnaChip Semiconductor IPO Priced to Work?
March 11, 2011 at 3:26 PM
 
Trent Tillman submits:
Korea-based designer and manufacturer of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products, MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp. (MX

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Impressive Innovation Highlights Bond ETF Space
March 11, 2011 at 3:25 PM
 
Michael Johnston submits:

Creativity on the product development front has become a defining characteristic of the ETF industry, as the surge in the number of ETF offerings in recent years has been driven not by duplication but by innovation. Many of the new fund launches are first-to-market concepts, offering exposure to


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3 Stocks to Watch Today
March 11, 2011 at 3:21 PM
 
Rash Menaria submits:

Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) plummeted 22.47% in after hours after its CEO warned that 50% of its FQ3 sales might be affected due to recent policy developments in France and Italy. The company reduced FQ3 production target to 25 MW from 30 MW (mid point of earlier guidance). The news is likely to weigh on other solar stocks as well and Sunpower (SPWRA), Power-One (PWER) and Evergreen Solar (ESLR) stocks are expected to be affected most due to their Italy exposure. The pending feed-in tariff cut in Italy and the potential hard cap on installation will continue to be an overhang on these stocks in near term.

Aeropostale (ARO) reported Q4 EPS of $0.95 versus consensus of 0.97. Management guided Q1 EPS of 0.35 to 0.38 (versus consensus of $0.43) and full year EPS 2.20 to 2.40 (vs. consensus of $2.54). Stock sold off on the miss and was trading


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Daily State of the Markets: Taking Another Look?
March 11, 2011 at 3:19 PM
 
David Moenning submits:

Good morning. A powerful earthquake in Japan overnight has triggered a massive tsunami and a wave of selling in overseas markets (the earthquake hit just 14 minutes before the close in Japan). While tragic from a human perspective, forces of Mother Nature usually don't have long-lasting effects on the economies of the world. As such, it is important to recognize that the current selling being done appears to be a continuation of traders taking another look at the premise for recent rally.

By now, everybody knows that up until February 22, the stock market had been a one-way street based on the concept that the U.S. economy had finally reached a growth rate that appeared to be sustainable. The thinking was that with the economic data coming in largely better-than-expected, job creation (as well as all the good things that accompany job growth) couldn't be too far behind. As such,


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After Solid Q4, iGO Expects Boost From Texas Instruments Partnership
March 11, 2011 at 3:10 PM
 
Mark Gomes submits:

Last night, iGo (IGOI), reported its results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2010. Revenues came in at $13.2M, up 33% from $9.9M in Q4 of last year. Even more impressive, its Q4 sales exceeded the $12.2M it posted in Q3. Earnings came in at 1-cent per share, up from breakeven results a year ago, despite legal expenses stemming from its acquisition of AERIAL7 and Adapt Mobile.

There were no Wall Street estimates to match up against, but President and CEO, Michael D. Heil, was clearly pleased with the results.

"Our strong revenue growth in the fourth quarter reflects the impact of our expanded product portfolio and the expansion of key retail relationships," he said.

By "key retail relationships", he was clearly referring to Wal-Mart (WMT). During the fourth quarter, iGo recognized $1.6 million of deferred revenue, reflecting sales of the company's products at the retail giant's stores. Its


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Aeropostale Drops: Restrained Outlook Scares Investors, Creates Opportunity
March 11, 2011 at 3:05 PM
 
NakedValue submits:

Teen clothing retailer Aeropostale (ARO) reported earnings yesterday that were above estimates but offered future guidance that fell short of expectations. This led to a sharp drop in the stock price after hours, making an inexpensive stock even cheaper. Based on the company's cheap valuation metrics, continued stock price weakness should give investors a margin of safety while they wait for benefits from potential positive opportunities.

Earnings

During the forth quarter of fiscal 2010, diluted earnings per share were $0.95 or $0.98 before a higher-than-expected tax rate. Diluted net income for the fiscal year 2010 was $2.49 per share. For the year, same-store sales growth slowed from 10% in 2009 to 1% in 2010.

The company expects 2011 earnings between $2.20 to $2.40 per diluted share. The CEO blamed the lackluster outlook on inflationary pressures (cotton). Capital expenditures were expected to be $70 million vs. $100.8 million in 2010 and


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The BlackRock Kelso Sell Off: Implications for BDC Investors
March 11, 2011 at 2:57 PM
 
Philip Mause submits:

BlackRock Kelso Capital Corporation (BKCC) announced its fourth quarter and full year 2010 earnings this week. Fourth quarter earnings were only 3 cents a share and in the context of a $1.28 annual dividend, this created an understandable fear that the dividend was threatened. BKCC traded as high as $12.95 before the announcement, but traded down sharply on the announcement, reaching a low of $10.01 and closing at $10.20 (considerably lower than the price at which shares were sold in a secondary offering last year).

Investors have lost more than 25% from the top and an investor who bought Monday at $12.95 would take more than two years to collect enough dividends at $1.28 a share (the current level which, of course, may change) to get his money back.

Does this mean that income-oriented investors should head back to the bunkers and retreat into money market funds and treasuries --


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6 Stocks to Capitalize on China Trade Worries
March 11, 2011 at 2:44 PM
 
Erik Wright submits:

Yesterday the market was taken by surprise when China announced a trade deficit of $7.3B in comparison with analyst expectations of a $4.95B surplus.

This was the first time since March 2010 that China had a trade deficit. In March 2010 the deficit was of $7.24B. Both in the 2010 deficit and in the recently announced trade data, the numbers were skewed due to the Chinese Lunar New Year. Last year, the Lunar holiday was later on in February (14), which affected March trade data; this year it fell on February 3, affecting February data.

The holiday usually lasts around 15 days, which typically leads to a slump in exports since the country's factories shut down or run at half speed for the whole holiday period.

Some analysts expect that this deficit is temporary and that China's trade data will return to the norm with a surplus next month. A


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Dividend Champions: Focus on Consumer Discretionary
March 11, 2011 at 2:38 PM
 
David Fish submits:

The Dividend Champions spreadsheet and PDF have been updated through 2/28/11 . N ote that all references to Champions mean companies that have paid higher dividends for at least 25 straight years; Contenders have streaks of 10-24 years; Challengers have streaks of 5-9 years. Together, all of these companies may be referred to using the abbreviation "CCC."

This is the ninth in a series of articles focusing on specific industries and isolating the CCC companies within those industries. The first eight can be found under my Articles page, beginning on March 2.

Consumer Choices

Beyond our basic needs, we face many choices of how to spend our consumer dollars. That includes personal products from tissues to household cleaners and clothing to entertainment, as well as the retailers where we choose to spend those dollars. (Retailing is often presented as an industry of its own, and I could have included grocers


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Inflation Hits Aeropostale's Earnings
March 11, 2011 at 2:24 PM
 
Zacks.com submits:

New York based specialty retailer of casual apparel for young men and women, Aeropostale Inc.'s (ARO) reported earnings of 95 cents per share for the fourth quarter 2010, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2 cents and dipped 4% from the prior-year quarters' earnings. The decline was primarily attributable to increased costs of raw materials and higher interest expenses.

Financial Details

Net sales for the reported quarter increased 4.8% to $839.3 million compared with $801.2 million in the prior-year quarter, principally due to a robust increase of 21% in its e-commerce business, partially offset by a 3% decline in same store sales. Net sales for the quarter were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

During the reported quarter, the company faces inflationary pressure on its margins. Aeropostale reported a decline of 9.6% in its operating income to $143.9 million compared with $159.2 million in the prior-year


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Microsoft: A Sub-Optimal Investment Choice
March 11, 2011 at 2:22 PM
 
BCMC submits:

We previously rolled out an analysis of Dow 30 stocks with a strongly positive outlook for Caterpillar (CAT). The second stock to be sliced and diced by our models is Microsoft (MSFT). In contrast to CAT, this time we are rather skeptical regarding the risk/return potential of the stock over the next six to 12 months.

To make a long story short, our approach is based on quantitative modeling of the business cycle impact on the price of various financial assets. We start by looking at the U.S. monthly GDP model to get an idea of where we are in the business cycle and what lies ahead of us.

[Click all to enlarge]


A recent update suggests that we have passed the peak and that growth should slow going forward. By the end of summer, GDP growth is expected to start to perk up again. Since the stock market leads


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Major Correction or Not, Scoop up These Stocks at a Discount
March 11, 2011 at 2:16 PM
 
Rocco Pendola submits:

After the next several trading days, we should know whether or not we just experienced the stock market correction everybody has been anticipating. I'll leave it to others to run down the numbers and consider the possibilty of a meaningful correction. We've been through this -- and worse -- before. During times like these, you should defend yourself against the risk of big losses and prepare to enter stocks that are dropping for no good reason.

Apple (AAPL). Today, America's Company starts selling the iPad 2. On Thursday, however, the stock took a beating, falling 1.65 percent to close at $346.67. AAPL started the week at $361.40. Clearly, this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Ignore critical rebukes of the new iPad. Everybody wants to take down the man at the top. The reality is that Apple is more than a technology company. And the iPad is more than


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Have Quepasa Bears Run Out of Ammunition?
March 11, 2011 at 2:15 PM
 
Mark Gomes submits:
Quepasa (QPSA.OB) has suddenly become a hotly-contested stock. For the months of December and January, QPSA logged just one day of million-share volume (and that didn't occur until January 27). February only saw two million-shares days. March, however, true to its reputation, has come in like a lion. Volume topped the million-share threshold in three of the first six trading days. Wednesday's trading came close to making it four-for-seven.
QPSA's new-found liquidity stems in part from a battle between the stock's bulls and bears. Indeed, the difference in QPSA's value if it succeeds or fails is very wide. Calculations vary, but a range of $2 (if the company fails) to $22 (if the company succeeds) is quite feasible. It also creates an easy $20 spread, from which we can calculate implied-success odds. Small changes in QPSA's odds of success will have a big impact on the share price. For example,

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Pharmasset: The Real Numbers Behind the Hype
March 11, 2011 at 2:02 PM
 
Robert Weinstein submits:
Therefore I have heard of military operations that were clumsy but swift, but I have never seen one that was skillful and lasted a long time. It is never beneficial to a nation to have a military operation continue for a long time.
--Sun Tsu, The Art of War

Pharmasset, Inc. (VRUS) shares have moved over 30% in the past few days as a result of the not-so-secret release of the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) data on VRUS's PSI-7977 and PSI-938 studies. The two drugs being tested are for treatment of Hepatitis C and have received headlines that include statements like "Pharmasset Hep C Data Wows Investors," which sounds very promising.
Reading further into the data of the interim results, we find a very large red herring that just may upset the apple cart. The study included a sample size of 16 -- so the

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Motorola Xoom Sales Tepid: Price Cuts Next?
March 11, 2011 at 1:57 PM
 
larry dignanLarry Dignan (ZDNet) submits:

With Apple (AAPL) launching the iPad 2 Friday, Motorola Mobility (MMI) may be forced to scramble to bolster sales of the Xoom tablet.

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek on Friday argued that earnings estimates for Motorola Mobility are too high for the second quarter and 2011 because sales of the Xoom and Atrix haven't lived up to expectations.

Misek said:

Xoom sales have been underwhelming. While marketing has just started we believe MMI will likely have to cut production if it already has not done so. We believe the device has been a bit buggy and did not meet the magic price point of $500. We believe management knows this and is hurrying development and production of lower cost tablets. Importantly we believe management will likely have to make the painful decision to accept little to no margin initially in order to match iPad 2's wholesale pricing.

On the Atrix front


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Stratasys, 3D Systems and the Next Technological Revolution
March 11, 2011 at 1:54 PM
 
Douglas W. House submits:

All of us who trade stocks full time have heard the old adage: "cut your losses short and let your winners run". It's definitely a cliché, but this simple sentence encapsulates what a trader needs to internalize in order to survive in this business. A disciplined trader can be wrong 80% - 90% of the time and still make money. No trader is correct all the time so the idea is to exit a poor trade early with a small loss and to ride your winner(s) to big gains. One 5 or 10-bagger makes up for a lot of mistakes. The concept is simple to understand but very difficult to consistently execute.

So what defines a winner? It depends on who you ask. High frequency traders would have a different definition than a "buy and hold" investor. Personally, I am a position trader so I will maintain a trade as


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14 Stocks George Soros Can't Get Enough Of Today
March 11, 2011 at 1:53 PM
 
Investment Underground submits:

Investing legend George Soros is known for actively managing his portfolio. At the time of writing, Soros Fund Management LLC has 837 positions. He initiated or added positions in all the stocks below during the last reporting period. Here are 14 of them along with some commentary on each.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT): The king of supply chain efficiency, Wal-Mart maintains positive growth and cyclicality seems to be a word with which they are unfamiliar - at least in the negative sense of the word. Wal-Mart is the classic trading down name, which has strengthened it, feeding its 5.5% free cash yield, over the period of economic depression in the United States. Simultaneously, Wal-Mart is a massive growth story in emerging markets where it represents quality and value in the eyes of the rapidly growing middle classes. As the growth story continues in these markets and consumers the world over seek


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3 Country ETFs Could Benefit From Triple-Digit Oil
March 11, 2011 at 1:47 PM
 
Jarred Cummans submits:

For the past several weeks developments in the Middle East have dominated not only the headlines but controlled the attention of investors as well. Starting with Tunisia and Egypt, numerous countries have staged democratic movements with varying degrees of success and violence. Though Egyptians forced long-time president Hosni Mubarak to relinquish his position and flee the country in a relatively peaceful coup, other conflicts have lasted for weeks and show no signs of coming to a peaceful conclusion. The protests have ensued for well over a month now, and have put global markets in a choke-hold as investors worry about both the direct economic impact and the repercussions of volatile and elevated oil prices.

The matter at hand is of a major concern to the oil industry. The Middle East holds the vast majority of the world's oil reserves, and with a lack of stable political systems production has slowed


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6 Safe, Low-Beta Stocks to Anchor Your Portfolio During a Correction
March 11, 2011 at 1:46 PM
 
Investment Underground submits:

By Sarah Ryan, Guest Editor

We screened for low-beta stocks trading at reasonable earnings multiples and positive free cash flow. With stable dividends and earnings growth rates, these can be core holdings for your portfolio, especially during a correction. This is what we uncovered:

Altria Group (MO): As we wrote about Complete Story »

   
   
ClearOne Communications: Best Value in the Audio/Video Conferencing Space
March 11, 2011 at 1:39 PM
 
Manish Babla submits:

Today morning, before the open, Salt Lake City-based ClearOne Communications (CLRO) announced outstanding results for the December 2010 quarter, reporting $12.6 million in revenue and 18c in pro forma earnings. This is the highest quarterly revenue and operating profit for this 30-year old company, at least since 2004, and a strong acceleration in operating performance over recent quarters (see the Table below).

Quarter Ending

Mar

2009

June

2009

Sep

2009

Dec

2009

Mar

2010

June

2010

Sep

2010

Dec

2010

Revenue (in $ million)

7.6

7.1

7.7

9.2

8.4

9.9

10.4

12.6

Pro forma Earnings

0.04

(0.05)

(0.03)

0.08

0.02

0.04

0.11

0.18

The stock closed today up 29c at $4.68, despite the overall weakness in the markets. However, as explained below, the price still lags the recent improvement in its operating fundamentals, and offers investors the opportunity to capitalize on the momentum into 2011 associated with both an improvement


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Hoping for More Credible Stress Tests in Europe
March 11, 2011 at 1:38 PM
 
Mike Maher submits:

About a year after the first stress tests of European banks were completed, regulators are gearing up for a second round of stress tests. Unfortunately, it seems these tests may once again do little to instill faith in the soundness of European banks.

Quarreling over what defines Tier 1 capital is one headache, and it seems that issue will not be resolved in the near future. Add to that the clean bill of health given to all but seven banks during last year's tests, and Europe may be grasping at straws. A tough uniform criteria for the tests is what will calm the markets, but that doesn't seem likely.

The main complaint about the new stress tests is that they are essentially the same tests as those done last year. When the U.S. stress-tested its 19 largest banks in May of 2009, 10 banks were ordered to raise an additional


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Why It's Safe to Buy Netflix (Again)
March 11, 2011 at 1:27 PM
 
Taxing Wall Street submits:

Okay, okay; I wrote a bearish article on Netflix (NFLX) not too long ago and everyone yelled at me. I am a Netflix user and actually really enjoy the product, but only because of how cheap it is. If it were more expensive, I might change my opinion because of the lack of current content, but that is neither here nor there.

Netflix has been pounded in the last month after hitting an all-time high at $247.55 on Valentine's Day. Since then, the stock has received no love. Since Netflix has such a high valuation, shorts have been trying to lean into this stock for a year and have finally been successful (at least, since February 14).

After Whitney Tilson announced he was closing his short position on Thursday, February 10, the stock peaked the following Monday and has been in a downward spiral every since. The high valuation, plus


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Clearwire Exec Exodus May Pave Way for Sprint Deal
March 11, 2011 at 1:25 PM
 
larry dignanLarry Dignan (ZDNet) submits:

Clearwire (CLWR) has a new CEO who is much more likely to complete a wholesale network agreement with Sprint.

Sprint (S) and Clearwire have been negotiating a wholesale network agreement for 4G WiMax services. Sprint and Clearwire have indicated a deal was close. One hurdle for the Sprint deal might have been former CEO Bill Morrow.

It's no coincidence that Morrow was replaced with interim CEO John Stanton. Stanton ran Western Wireless, which was a wholesale wireless network that was sold to Alltel. Western Wireless also managed multiple network technologies.

Sound familiar? Clearwire has WiMax and plans a move to LTE in a hybrid network. Meanwhile, Sprint's network is also a hodge-podge of technologies. Given that backdrop, Clearwire's executive exodus could mean following:

  • The company saves some money.
  • Removes impediments to a deal with Sprint.
  • And sets Clearwire up to be a wholesaler that can chase other customers.

Kaufman Bros.


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Bullish on America? Consider These 11 Low Cost ETFs Today
March 11, 2011 at 1:21 PM
 
Investment Underground submits:

With assistance from Schwab and Vanguard, we break down low expense ETFs across various categories. For investors bullish on U.S. equities, consider these 11 ETFs.

Schwab US Large-Cap (SCHX) has over $500 million in assets. It has a NAV of $31.52. The expense ratio is 0.08%.

The fund provides exposure to large-cap U.S. companies. It seeks investment results that track the performance, before fees and expense, of the Dow Jones U.S. Large-Cap Total Stock Market Index made up of approximately the largest 750 US stocks.

Schwab US Large-Cap Growth (SCHG) has around $300 million in assets. It has a NAV of $31.50. The expense ratio is 0.13%. 431 companies are held in the fund.

The fund provides exposure to large-cap U.S. stocks that exhibit growth style characteristics. It seeks investment results that track the performance, before fees and expenses, of the Dow Jones U.S. Large-Cap Growth Total Stock Market Index,


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Friday FX Brief: Yen Rises After Earthquake
March 11, 2011 at 1:19 PM
 
Andrew Wilkinson submits:

The yen rose across the board against all 16 major currency trading partners following the strongest earthquake to hit the nation in a century. The 8.9-magnitude quake struck around 85 miles off the northern coast of Tokyo and created a 33-foot high tsunami leaving at least 32 people dead. Risk aversion was having less effect on the yen in recent days sending it to its lowest in two weeks against the dollar before the quake. But a significant jolt to investors' confidence and heavy repatriation sent the yen higher immediately after the earthquake.

Japanese yen – You just have to spend five minutes surveying the devastation across the affected area of Japan to quickly realize that there will be significant dislocation followed by a massive rebuild in the aftermath of the earthquake. While the yen typically strengthens on safe haven grounds when natural disaster strikes or investors lose their nerve,
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Investors Need to Be Very Cautious About 'Cheap' AIG
March 11, 2011 at 1:15 PM
 
NakedValue submits:

American International Group (AIG) has been one of the more resilient post-crisis stocks. The stock has climbed 431% in the last two years. We have even advocated using AIG warrants as a discounted way to gain exposure to AIG.

In sharp contrast to the darkest days of the 2008 financial crisis, many things now seem to be going right for AIG. The stock price has increased sharply. The company has gained the trust of respected investor Bruce Berkowitz (see: Berkowitz's Next Big Stock Pick). Its first earnings report since restructuring has been completed and it has a dedicated CEO who stayed with the company despite personal health issues.

Despite these positive developments, however, there are reasons for investors to be cautious.

Government's Intentions

The government is going to sell a 92.1% stake in the company. This does not affect the fundamental value of the company, but it will certainly weigh


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Why a Revolution in Bahrain or Oman Will Affect These 11 Oil Stocks
March 11, 2011 at 12:58 PM
 
Investment Underground submits:

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Bahrain produced 48,430 barrels per day of oil and 444 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2009. Moreover, the refinery capacity is 262,000 barrels per day of oil. It also exports 2,000 barrels per day of oil to the US. Proved reserves are 120 million barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which ranked 56th and 50th in 2008, respectively.

Bahrain is also home to the Fifth Fleet of the U.S. Navy.

Oman produced 816,150 barrels per day oil and 875 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2009. It also exports 30,000 barrels per day of oil to the US. Proved reserves are 5.5 billion barrels of oil and 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which ranked 22nd and 24th in 2008, respectively.

Occidental (OXY), in December 2009, and its partners began operating the Bahrain Field.


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Which Fixed-Income Sectors Are Good Inflation Hedges?
March 11, 2011 at 12:48 PM
 
MyPlanIQ submits:

Expectations that measures of inflation will show an increase in the near to medium term have driven up yields at the long end of the yield curve, with long term treasury ETFs dropping to the bottom of our trend table. In contrast, SPDR DB International Inflation Protected Bond ETF (WIP) and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) have delivered solid gains in the past three months. We believe two bond sectors—non-dollar denominated inflation-hedging credit and high yield bonds—will continue to perform well in a rising interest rates environment.

What are the forces driving inflation globally?

1. Inflationary pressure triggered by rising commodity prices and capital inflow to stay in emerging markets in the foreseeable future

Inflation will likely stay high in the emerging countries due to rising commodity and food prices and wage pressure, while capital inflow from developed markets seeking for higher yields continue to drive up asset


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Can Kazaa Stop Atrinsic's Slump?
March 11, 2011 at 12:44 PM
 
Ian Bezek submits:

Up until this week, almost no one had heard of the small media firm Atrinsic (ATRN). The company's stock began trading under the ATRN symbol in 2009 and had been a consistent loser up until recently. By September 2010, the stock was languishing under $2 a share (reverse-split adjusted) and the company appeared to be meekly drifting off toward bankruptcy. Suddenly, an electrifying pitch hit the marketplace: Atrinsic's Kazaa music subscription service would revive Atrinsic's fortunes. Shares soared with the stock gapping up more than 80% Monday and shares have stayed at an elevated level in volatile trading all week. On Thursday, Atrinsic briefly surged more than 50% in the morning after the shares had sunk to under $4.50 on Wednesday.


(Click to enlarge)

Briefly the bullish pitch goes as follows (John Gilliam's compelling though flawed bullish thesis for Atrinsic can be found here and here): Atrinsic's Kazaa is going


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6 Asset Class Retirement Portfolio With 3 U.S. Equity ETFs Added: Strengthened Returns?
March 11, 2011 at 12:44 PM
 
MyPlanIQ submits:

We are working through a series of articles to help improve returns for retirement investors. As the first baby boomers prepare for retirement with the financial meltdown still vivid in our minds and emotions we are attempting to build a set of funds that are easy to understand yet have the potential to deliver good returns at a low risk. We want to keep it simple and understandable. We believe that this type of investing can be understood and going one step at a time will hopefully make it clear and reduce some of the angst.

What we have seen is:

  • Increasing diversification from three areas to six can make a significant impact on simulated historical returns
  • Only a few retirement plans (~4%) have six asset classes but it may be possible to create a holistic portfolio with the combination of IRA and 401K plans
  • We have added a managed

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Spike in Oil Slows U.S. Equities; Small Cap Growth Floats to the Top
March 11, 2011 at 12:29 PM
 
MyPlanIQ submits:

We track US Asset Class Trends to determine which subclasses would be the best for long term investment portfolios. Whether using a buy and hold or momentum based portfolio, rotating in the highest performing asset can bring additional returns.

We use iShares' ETFs to gain consistency. We have no affiliation or relationship with iShares.

Assets Class Symbols 03/09
Trend
Score
03/02
Trend
Score
Direction
Russell Smallcap Growth IWO 13.75% 14.83% v
Russell Smallcap Index IWM 12.27% 13.29% v
Russell Midcap Growth IWP 11.5% 13.33% v
Russell Smallcap Value IWN 11.43% 12.43% v
Russell Midcap Value IWS 11.09% 11.56% v
Russell Midcap Index IWR 10.92% 11.98% v
Russell Largecap Value IWD 9.72% 9.94% v
Russell Largecap Growth IWF 9.39% 10.61% v
Russell Largecap Index IWB 9.12% 9.94% v

The trend score is defined as the average of 1,4,13,26 and 52 week total returns (including dividend reinvested).

As expected, US equities are


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Alternative Indexing: Considering Equal Weight ETFs
March 11, 2011 at 12:23 PM
 
Tom Lydon submits:

Most Index exchange traded funds (ETFs) hold specific weightings of underlying securities based on market capitalization. Market cap weighting has been the cornerstone of index construction – look at the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 Index. Today investors are warming up to other forms of index construction, like equal-weight indexing the the ETFs that represent them.

The equal-weighting schematic is transparent, inexpensive and helps diversify, writes Will McClatchy for ETFZone.

In equal-weighted funds, every company within the fund is owned in equal amounts. For instance, the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP) holds each S&P 500 company in equal quantity, whereas the actual S&P holds the top 10 firms at around 20% of assets and the bottom 10 at less than 1%. Additionally, in a five-year comparison with the S&P, RSP dropped and recovered faster than the underlying index.

By placing each company in equal weight, the fund


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Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
March 11, 2011 at 12:19 PM
 

  • Major earthquake hits Japan. An 8.9 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Japan at 2:46pm local time today, leaving 4M buildings without power in Tokyo and triggering a tsunami as high as 10 meters. At least 30 people have been killed and many are missing, and tsunami warnings have been issued for several countries, including Russia, and parts of the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii, which has begun to evacuate coastal areas. It remains to be seen to what extent the earthquake and its aftermath might disrupt global economic activity. In the meantime, the Nikkei closed -1.7%, the yen touched a two-year low against the dollar before recovering, global markets and U.S. futures are down, and shares of reinsurers like Swiss Re (SWCEY.PK), Munich Re and Hannover Re are taking an immediate hit.
  • AIG offers to repurchase mortgage-backed bonds. AIG (AIG) has offered the NY Fed $15.7B to buy

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Cramer's Stop Trading! Is Saudi Arabia Holding Stocks Hostage? (3/10/11)
March 11, 2011 at 11:59 AM
 
Miriam Metzinger submits:

Stocks discussed on Cramer's Stop Trading! TV Segment, Thursday March 10.

Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Honeywell (HON), IBM (IBM)

After there seemed to be the beginning of a rally for high-flying stocks like Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), the market was held hostage and taken down by news of a shooting in Saudi Arabia. Even though the country is large and is not yet in turmoil, the "little


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Japanese Earthquake Sparks Yen Sell-Off
March 11, 2011 at 11:57 AM
 
Tom Lydon submits:

A strong earthquake hit Japan, prompting frazzled traders to dump Japan's stocks and currency. This could be an additional blow to Japanese yen ETFs as the U.S. dollar has been gaining ground against the currency.

A 8.9 magnitude earthquake struck northeast of Tokyo at a depth of six miles off the eastern coast, damaging Tokyo and sparking a 6 meter-high tsunami warning along the island's northeastern coast, according to The Wall Street Journal.

A tsunami watch is effective for Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Hawaii, Russian and the Marianas.

The Japanese yen, Tokyo stocks and Japanese government bond yields fell as panicked traders assessed the situation. The Nikkei Stock Average dropped 1.7% on closing and the dollar strengthened to $83.20 yen from $82.80 yen. The Japanese currency fell versus all 16 of its most-traded counterparts, write Candice Zachariahs and Ron Harui for Bloomberg.

Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac


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Cramer's Mad Money - Finisar Made Too Many Hot Potatoes (3/10/11)
March 11, 2011 at 11:55 AM
 
Miriam Metzinger submits:

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday March 10.

Can You See a Blindside Coming? ARM Holdings (ARMH), Qualcomm (QCOM), SanDisk (SNDK), Apple (AAPL), Finisar (FNSR), Nvidia (NVDA), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Ciena (CIEN), Oplink Communications (OPLK)

How can you see a blindside coming? Finisar (FNSR) was annihilated, down 15 points in one session, a full 39%. Tablet stocks also got pummeled. Who could have seen this coming? JPMorgan released research that, since Apple's (AAPL) iPad is so superior to other tablets, competing companies and their parts suppliers were going to face an inventory glut, as Apple's iPad would outsell other tablets. This so-called "tablet bubble" sent down ARM Holdings (ARMH), Qualcomm (QCOM), and SanDisk (SNDK). Cramer said that while he discussed Apple as "the great destroyer" of other tech names, he didn't imagine the


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Saudi 'Day of Rage' Places Focus on PowerShares DB Energy ETF
March 11, 2011 at 11:38 AM
 
ETF Database submits:

Thanks to protests in North Africa, oil prices have been surging in recent weeks as investors fear the loss of meaningful supplies of the important commodity from the world supply. Until recently, the protests have focused in on relatively small countries that do not contribute large amounts to the world's total oil supplies. However, this could change today thanks to a planned 'day of rage' in the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia.

Despite the country's incredible geological luck, many in the nation feel as though the oil wealth has been extremely concentrated in the hands of a few and that most citizens in the country have not benefited from the tremendous cash flows that the hydrocarbons have brought to the kingdom over the last few decades. Nearly 40% of Saudis aged 20-24 are unemployed and the recent protests in neighboring countries may just be the kick that the extremely


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Slimmed-Down LSI Catches Eyes on Wall Street
March 11, 2011 at 11:11 AM
 
The 451 Group: Inorganic Growth submits:

By Brenon Daly

Wall Street's vote on NetApp's (NTAP) purchase of the Engenio division from LSI is pretty clear: the seller got the better end of the deal. On an otherwise tough day on the market Thursday, LSI shares were one of the rare spots of green on trading screens as investors backed the company's move to focus more on its chips business. The stock closed up 3%, with volume was more than twice as heavy as average. On the other side, NetApp slumped 6% on trading that was four times heavier than a typical day.

The reaction comes after LSI, advised by Goldman Sachs, announced plans after the closing bell Wednesday to sell its Engenio external storage systems business to NetApp for $480m in cash. (Over the past decade,


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Q4 Flow of Funds: Household Leverage Down, Wealth Effect Dead, And Equities Surge
March 11, 2011 at 10:55 AM
 
The Angry Bear submits:

By Rebecca Wilder

The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2010 Flow of Funds Accounts for the US. On the household balance sheet, net worth (total assets minus total liabilities) was estimated at $56.8 trillion, which is up $2.1 trillion over the quarter. Notably, household net worth has increased $6.4 trillion since the recession's end (Q2 2009). Moreover, personal disposable income increased another $918 billion over the quarter, which dropped household leverage (total liabilities/disposable income) 1.1% to 116%.

Personal saving as a percentage of disposable


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Google May Face Antitrust Hearings in Senate
March 11, 2011 at 10:47 AM
 
Erick Schonfeld submits:

Google (GOOG) is constantly under antitrust scrutiny these days, whether it's for large acquisitions into new markets such as its proposed ITA deal or for its general dominance in search. The company has faced antitrust investigations in Europe. But now Google faces possible antitrust hearings in the U.S. Senate .

Senator Herb Kohl (Democrat from Wisconsin), who is the Chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights, announced his subcommittee's agenda today for the 112th Congress. One of the planned agenda items is a probe into Google's "dominance over Internet search" and "allegations raised by e-commerce websites that compete with Google that they are being treated unfairly in search ranking, and in their ability to purchase search advertising."

That would primarily be the online travel industry and its "FairSearch" consortium which is trying to block the ITA deal. In general, Google doesn't buy too many e-commerce


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Cramer's Lightning Round - Activision's Got No Swagger (3/10/11)
March 11, 2011 at 10:44 AM
 
Miriam Metzinger submits:

Stocks discussed on the Lightning Round session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday March 10.

Bullish Calls:

Monsanto (MON), Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS): "You bought the whole shooting match. I think precisely because a lot of people jumped into those stocks because they thought there would be a good crop number, that's why everyone is getting killed. I would buy POT when it drops another 10 percent, but don't sell. It is down too much."

Electronic Arts (ERTS): "We might bless Electronic Arts at a certain point, but not that one (Activision)."

Jabil Circuit (JBL): "Listen Skipper. I will bless Jabil... but you can buy 100 here and a 100 at $18. If you can't handle the pain down to $18, then I would sell."

Bearish Calls:

Activision (ATVI): "No, no, it's got no swagger, so we are going to stay away from that one."

Paramount Gold and


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Coca-Cola: Dividend Stock Analysis
March 11, 2011 at 10:31 AM
 
Dividend Growth Investor submits:

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) manufactures, distributes, and markets nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups worldwide. The company is a member of the dividend aristocrat index and has increased distributions for 49 years in a row. The most recent dividend increase was in February, when the Board of Directors approved a 6.80% increase to 47 cents/share. The major competitors of Coca-Cola include PepsiCo (PEP), Nestle (NSRGY.PK), Unilever (UL) and Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS).

Over the past decade this dividend stock has delivered an annualized total return of 3.30% to its loyal shareholders. One of the largest shareholders in the company is Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A).
click to enlarge

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A Nasty Week and a Highly Caffeinated Short
March 11, 2011 at 10:29 AM
 
David Brown submits:

It has been a nasty week. The crisis in Libya and escalating oil prices continue to pummel the market, and today, two other global giants joined in the fray. China announced a significant trade deficit, and Japan revised its 4th quarter GDP downward by 1.3%. Then U.S. jumped in, announcing a widening trade deficit and initial jobless claims that were worse than last week's (though still within the expected range). Nothing else out of the ordinary happened, but all this was enough to send the market to its knees. The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average for the first time since August 31, 2010. That, we consider a bearish sign.

Moreover, investors' fears are rising, as measured by the daily VIX and the longer-term VXX. The VXX, which has been on a steady incline for the past several weeks, reached 33.8 today, while the shorter-term VIX jumped 8%


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2 Years Into the Bull Market, Portfolio Lessons Still Apply
March 11, 2011 at 9:29 AM
 
AAII submits:

The bull market turned two years old this week. The S&P 500 closed at 676.53 on March 9, 2009, and started its recovery the next day. Since then, the large-cap index has risen approximately 86%. How your personal returns have looked over the past 24 months depends largely on the portfolio decisions you have made.

Investors who maintained their allocations to stocks in the face of the financial abyss have mostly benefited from the rebound. Those who sold too late into the bear market and then waited for clear signs that a rebound was underway have likely trailed the performance of the large-cap index.

In hindsight, the ideal strategy would have been to sell stocks in the first half of 2007 and bought stocks early in 2009. To do so, however, would have required making two correct market calls--a task that would have been extremely difficult. Repeating this feat in


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10 Energy Stocks Providing Potential Buying Opportunities
March 11, 2011 at 9:20 AM
 
David Alton Clark submits:

"The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." This famous investing quote is credited to Baron Rothschild, a member of the Rothschild banking family who made a fortune buying during the chaos following the Battle of Waterloo.

Times of market turmoil often present the best buying opportunities for savvy investors. Contrarians find their best investment opportunities during times of panic. Cramer says "No one ever made a dime panicking." The bear market of 1974 gave Warren Buffett the opportunity to purchase a stake in the Washington Post Company (WPO). This one investment subsequently provided Buffett with more than a hundred fold return. One of Buffett's famous quotes is "Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it."

Our innate instincts encourage us to depart a sinking ship. This survival


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Increased Options Trading to Lift Ameritrade?
March 11, 2011 at 9:19 AM
 
Trefis submits:

Ameritrade (NYSE:AMTD) is an online brokerage that allows individual investors to trade equities, options and other securities. Ameritrade also offers money market account services to clients through TD Bank USA. It competes with other online brokerages and financial services firms like E-Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC), Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC).

Our price estimate for Ameritrade stands at $22.65, in line with market price.

Understanding Options Trading

Options are contracts that allow parties to buy or sell assets – generally shares – at a pre-determined price. The popularity of options comes from the concept that the buyer of an option does not have the obligation to complete the asset transaction. The buyer essentially holds a right to complete the trade if it is profitable.

Standardized options contracts are listed and traded at various futures and options exchanges around the world. With the number of retail investors exploring


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Bill Gross Sells Government Bonds. Does It Matter?
March 11, 2011 at 9:13 AM
 
Cullen Roche submits:

Bill Gross, the founder of PIMCO, made waves this week by selling his holdings of US Treasuries. Bloomberg reported on the dramatic news:

Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., told PBS this week that yields are too low. His $237 billion Total Return Fund held no government-related debt as of Feb. 28, according to a report on the Pimco website.

That's dramatic. After all, Mr. Gross says the Fed is now helping the US government implement a ponzi scheme. He also believes QE is helping to dramatically reduce rates. He says the end of QE2 will be a "d-day" for the bond market. Those are comments that you'd certainly want to take notice of considering this is the largest bond manager in the world, right? Not necessarily. Unfortunately, this isn't the first time Bill Gross has sounded the alarm for the U.S.


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30 Cash-Rich, Undervalued Stocks for Your Watchlist
March 11, 2011 at 9:11 AM
 
Kapitall submits:

The following is a list of undervalued stocks, with Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) ratios below 1. Additionally, all of these companies are generating significant amounts of free cash flow, when expressed as a percentage of market cap.



To compile the list, we started with a universe of about 120 companies with PEG below 1. We then collected data on levered free cash flow, and identified the companies that have significant levered free cash flow, when compared to current valuations. (Note: Levered free cash flow is the free cash flow


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